Background:Early diagnosis and accurate prognosis of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important to timely assignment to optimal treatment modes. We aimed to develop a deep learning model to predict cognitive conversion to guide re-assignment decisions to more intensive therapies where needed.
Methods:Longitudinal data including five variable sets, i.e. demographics, medical history, neuropsychological outcomes, laboratory and neuroimaging results, from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) cohort were analyzed. We first developed a deep learning model to predicted cognitive conversion using all five variable sets. We then gradually removed variable sets to obtained parsimonious models for four different years of forecasting after baseline within acceptable frames of reduction in overall model fit (AUC remaining > 0.8).
Results:A total of 607 individuals were included at baseline, of whom 538 participants were followed up at 12 months, 482 at 24 months, 268 at 36 months and 280 at 48 months. Predictive performance was excellent with AUCs ranging from 0.87 to 0.92 when all variable sets were considered. Parsimonious prediction models that still had a good performance with AUC 0.80-0.84 were established, each only including two variable sets. Neuropsychological outcomes were included in all parsimonious models. In addition, biomarker was included at year 1 and year 2, imaging data at year 3 and demographics at year 4. Under our pre-set threshold, the rate of upgrade to more intensive therapies according to predicted cognitive conversion was always higher than according to actual cognitive conversion so as to decrease the false positive rate, indicating the proportion of patients who would have missed upgraded treatment based on prognostic models although they actually needed it.
Conclusions:Neurophysiological tests combined with other indicator sets that vary along the AD continuum can improve can provide aid for clinical treatment decisions leading to improved management of the disease.
Trail registration information:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00106899 (Registration Date: 31 March 2005).
Keywords:Alzheimer’s disease; Cognitive conversion; Machine learning; Prediction model.

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乐备实（上海优宁维生物科技股份有限公司旗下全资子公司），是国内专注于提供高质量蛋白检测以及组学分析服务的实验服务专家，自2018年成立以来，乐备实不断寻求突破，公司的服务技术平台已扩展到单细胞测序、空间多组学、流式检测、超敏电化学发光、Luminex多因子检测、抗体芯片、PCR Array、ELISA、Elispot、PLA蛋白互作、多色免疫组化、DSP空间多组学等30多个，建立起了一套涵盖基因、蛋白、细胞以及组织水平实验的完整检测体系。

 
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